Open Future

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In addition to tracking specific trends about open innovation and crowdsourcing, it is important to build a broader view on those trends’ underlying drivers and facilitators, and how they could evolve in the years to come. Trends, forecasts and scenarios about the power of the Internet, Web 2.0, the rise of virtual worlds, consumers becoming prosumers… The Open Future report is somewhat atypical, as it is build around interesting videos and quotes. It explains why and how one should constantly keep track of (disruptive) trends, build different scenarios, and have corresponding strategies prepared.

1. Open Future videos

We compiled a list of videos about some underlying drivers and facilitators, providing inspiration and background information for anyone interested in the future of open innovation, crowdsourcing, consumer activism… Go to Open Future videos.

2. Scenario planning and strategies

The most important choices we make in the present depend on the assumptions we hold about the future. People and companies who don’t believe in the benefits of open innovation and crowdsourcing, should keep in mind it is difficult to make such assumptions and especially to spot discontinuities…

“No matter what happens, the US Navy is not going to be caught napping.”
- Frank Knox, U.S. Secretary of the Navy, 4th December 1941 (3 days before Pearl Harbor)

Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit voice over waves and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.
- Editorial in The Boston Post, 1865

I think there is a market for about 5 computers.
- Thomas J. Watson, Chairman of IBM, 1943

There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.
- Ken Olsen, President of DEC, 1977

For business leaders the only relevant questions about the future are those where we succeed from shifting the question from whether something will happen to: What would we do if it did happen? This is the essence of effective scenario planning and strategic follow-up: building different scenarios and working out scenario-specific strategies well in advance. Defining specific signals enables decision makers to think about the effectiveness of particular responses in advance of the event. Thus prepared, decision makers can begin to anticipate the development of situations ahead of competitors, as opposed to reacting under pressure in the wake of unexpected events.

In strategy it is important to see distant things as if they were close and to take a distanced view of close things.
- Miyamoto Musashi, 1587-1645

It is pardonable to be defeated but never to be surprised.
- Frederick the Great, 1712-1786

The following key elements should be kept in mind: identify the main drivers and uncertainties, build scenarios, look for opportunities, prepare scenario-specific strategies, and keep all options open. In most cases, the latter requires starting initial investments for different scenarios.

Knowing is not enough, we must apply.
Willing is not enough, we must do.
- Goethe

Translated to open innovation and crowdsourcing, business leaders and entrepreneurs should develop a broader view on underlying drivers like web 2.0 and consumer activism to fully understand upcoming trends and to build realistic scenarios and corresponding strategies. It is an uncertain (but plausible) scenario that crowdsourcing will become a very important factor in future innovation processes. It is an even more uncertain (but still plausible) scenario that crowdsourcing will evolve into a highly disruptive phenomenon that completely restructures businesses and erodes the concept of traditional firms like we know it today. It may, it may not. But just in case it does, you should have your strategies ready. Remember the key question: What would we do if it did happen?